I plotted the graph below from 2024 Dfe data and it illustrates a well know trend: schools with higher average prior attainment (in Year 6) pupils tend to achieve higher GCSE scores. Almost 80% of the variability in Attainment 8 scores is explained by KS2 scores ! (but don't forget about the other 20%)
Of course you would expect there to be a strong correlation but the critical thing to note is the increased spread in the A8 score for lower KS2 values. For example If the KS2 average is 115 then A8 varies between 80 and 87. If the KS2 average is around 105 (the England average) then A8 varies between 35 and 65- a much bigger spread. This suggests that, on average, lower performing schools have significantly greater numbers of students under achieving relatively speaking
The graph suggests sending your child to the highest performing school they can access, will on average, reduce the chance of your child under performing (not reaching their potential). This backs up anecdotal evidence that poor performing schools can hold children back. E.g. due to resources, teaching quality and support systems etc
However, of course it's not as simple as selecting the school with the best results. You need to make sure you are happy with the metric being used to rank schools and that it fairly applies to the schools under consideration (E.g. comparing State and Private schools is dangerous IMO). You also need to consider your child's strengths, weaknesses and interests and be happy with the school ethos, focus and environment etc.
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
Of course you would expect there to be a strong correlation but the critical thing to note is the increased spread in the A8 score for lower KS2 values. For example If the KS2 average is 115 then A8 varies between 80 and 87. If the KS2 average is around 105 (the England average) then A8 varies between 35 and 65- a much bigger spread. This suggests that, on average, lower performing schools have significantly greater numbers of students under achieving relatively speaking
The graph suggests sending your child to the highest performing school they can access, will on average, reduce the chance of your child under performing (not reaching their potential). This backs up anecdotal evidence that poor performing schools can hold children back. E.g. due to resources, teaching quality and support systems etc
However, of course it's not as simple as selecting the school with the best results. You need to make sure you are happy with the metric being used to rank schools and that it fairly applies to the schools under consideration (E.g. comparing State and Private schools is dangerous IMO). You also need to consider your child's strengths, weaknesses and interests and be happy with the school ethos, focus and environment etc.
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
Statistics: Posted by YetAnotherDad — Tue Mar 11, 2025 10:51 pm
